Most historians would agree that India has traditionally been permeated by a continental mindset, having to deal with large terrestrial invasions, whether it be the Aryans, the Afghans or the Moghols. Even today India's defence budget remains relatively land-locked, despite the increase in the Navy's share. Yet India has increasingly chosen to invest in a blue-water navy. Do you believe that this symbolizes a reversal in Indian strategic thought? And if so what are the reasons underlying such an evolution?
I think that India has had a maritime strategic mindset since independence, it just remained dormant for many years. During WWII, the Indian Navy under British Command was a formidable fighting force. After the Indo-Pakistani wars of 1947 and 1965, and the Sino-Indian War of 1962, however, the harsh reality of the insecurity of the Himalayas set in and the notion of developing a maritime power was put on the backburner. The focus was on defending the subcontinent from Chinese or Pakistani land incursions. Nehru did mention the importance of seapower, as did Indira Gandhi, but neither of them had a very outward looking orientation, even though the Navy underwent an expansion under Indira Gandhi.
I'd also add that until recently India's entire mindset was inward looking, and not only in the strategic realm. Until the economic reforms of 1991, India's markets were relatively closed to the world, stifled under the weight of the 'Licence Raj'. Traditionally naval powers are also economic and trading powers, countries that prosper by venturing overseas and that are animated by a sense of overture to the world. Before the end of the Cold War, India had no real strategic or economic imperative to focus on a powerful navy.
So the real reversal in India's strategic mindset occurred at the end of the Cold War?
Yes, the transformed geopolitical environment and India's economic liberalisation provided it with both the desire and the window of opportunity to expand its navy. As a result, the Navy budget has been steadily increasing over the past few years.
Do you think that this will remain the case?
I hope so, the Navy has been very good at making its case, and is undoubtedly the branch of the armed forces which receives the most attention in the press, whether it be during the rescue operations following the 2004 tsunami, or when Indian ships evacuated Indian citizens from Lebanon in 2006.
After the recent terrorist attacks, however, more funds may be channeled into the improvement of interior policing.
Would you say that the Chinese PLN (People's Liberation Navy) is now viewed by the Indian Navy as the number one threat in the region?
Definitely, and far more so than the Pakistani Navy, which is viewed more as a potential nuisance than a genuine threat. India is, of course, most concerned about China's 'string of pearls', as it considers it to be the outlining of a maritime containment policy.
In one of my articles, however, I point out that these Indian fears are somewhat overstated.
(http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~content=a790947871~db=all~order=page)
The fact is that it is still somewhat unclear whether China's strengthening of its ties with IOR littorals are merely economic endeavours, as they themselves claim, or whether they are driven by strategic and military considerations. There is no tangible evidence that the ports and infrastructure that the PRC is building throughout the region are overtly military in nature.
Of course it's obvious that China, sooner or later, is going to consider the possibility of making these structures 'dual use' facilities, which can be used for both commercial and military purposes.
Gwadar, the deep-sea port in the Arabian Sea off the coast of Pakistan has the most dangerous potenial in this regard. The Chinese have invested an enormous amount of money in its construction, and they will naturally want some form of return, probably by stationing submarines. Similarly, Chinese admirals have been spotted being given guided tours of the Coco Islands by high-ranking members of the Myanamarese junta. This, in my view, definitely adds some credibility to the rumours of a Chinese SIGINT facility at that location.
There are rumours that China is acquiring a combat operational aircraft carrier. Does this mean that the Indian Navy will lose its comparative advantage in terms of strategic projection in the Indian Ocean region?
There are indeed rumours that the Varyag, a Soviet carrier that the PRC purchased from Ukraine, and that is currently being refurbished in China, will become an operational carrier in two to three years. In my view though, the Varyag will not take part in military operations and will be used as a training carrier.
China does have an Indigenous Carrier Project though, and Chinese military officials have stated in the past that they would like to deploy an aircraft carrier by 2015.
Carriers can only operate effectively in groups however, and need to be provided with escorts. Very few Chinese ships have adequate air defence systems (they tend to be equipped with Russian systems that are less reliable than the American or Israeli systems that their Indian counterparts are now increasingly equipped with), and a Chinese carrier deployed in the Indian Ocean would be a sitting duck for the Indian Air Force and Indian Naval Aviation.
The only vessels that China can deploy in the Indian Ocean are its underwater assets, but in order to sustain these forces in the area for a long period of time, China would have to maintain a permanent presence in the region in the form of ports of call and refuelling stations. (hence, some say, the 'String of Pearls')
For the time being though, China would not be able to launch an effective naval expedition in the IOR?
Not in the short to medium term, that's for sure. Which means, if one uses a naval strategic planning time framework, not for the next two to three decades.
Moving onto a different subject: the chronic unreliability of Russian arm provisions to India. Numerous disputes have given rise to some strain in Indo-Russian relations. Sureesh Mehta, the current chief of the Indian Navy recently said, after learning of the delay in the delivery of the Admiral Gorshkov, that India should reduce its dependence on Moscow for military equipment. Do you think that recent events will incite the Indian Navy to seek greater diversity from now on in its arm procurements?
There have indeed been a fair degree of problems in terms of delays, cost overruns, weapon malfunctions etc.. Diversification has long been a goal of the Indian Navy, as it prevents excessive dependence on a sole provider, and provides a way of playing the competition in order to get the most efficient weapon systems at the best possible rates.
Indo-Russian ties go back a long way however, and the Indian Navy is used to Russian military hardware, as they operated mostly Soviet equipment throughout the Cold War. There's a certain 'comfort factor' in the familiarity of the Russian weapon systems. Military relations in-between both nations are still strong; no other country would have agreed to lease India a nuclear submarine. Even though Russian weapons are often less reliable than their Israeli, European or American competitors, particularly in the field of anti-missile technology, Indo-Russian cooperation has also led to great successes in the past. The Brahmos supersonic cruise missile is a prime example.
Thank you, Gurpreet, for your time and expertise.